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Post by Dane on Nov 3, 2010 15:44:07 GMT -8
Ok, Besides us knowing. Do the people of Brentwood and Mill Bay communities know about this plan of retirement of Mill Bay and terminals. If BC Ferries is keeping it a secret I will be very mad and I think the people of both community will be mad too. Flugel has posted this already, however I will repost the general idea. This document is BC Ferries thinking out loud. It is not policy, nor does it imply future policy. It is simply BCFS looking at the current situation, and mechanisms. Route closure cannot be kept as a "secret."
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Neil
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Post by Neil on Nov 3, 2010 20:14:41 GMT -8
Ok, Besides us knowing. Do the people of Brentwood and Mill Bay communities know about this plan of retirement of Mill Bay and terminals. If BC Ferries is keeping it a secret I will be very mad and I think the people of both community will be mad too. BC Ferries really should stop releasing these important documents exclusively to the West Coast Ferries Forum, although the practise does flatter us. I nominate 'hullnumbers' to take this highly secret information about the Mill Bay run to the people of Central Saanich, on behalf of the Forum. Good grief. This isn't the first time BC Ferries has talked about turfing direct mainland - Saltspring service. I recall hearing about it as long ago as the early '80s, when the idea was to funnel Gulf Islands traffic through Village Bay, whose large vehicle compound made it a likely 'hub'. Are they more serious about it now? Hard to say, but when you consider that their notion of a bridge to Saturna sounds more like something from one of the periodic rounds of fantasy ferries that takes place on our forum, you have to be somewhat skeptical about some of the other radical ideas floated in the document.
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Post by hullnumbers on Nov 3, 2010 21:54:31 GMT -8
Thanks for nominating me Neil, and it does help that BC Ferries does release this info to us cause it gives us an idea of what their thinking of. Think of it as a way of knowing the future before it happens and attack the system early to keep what you want as a community.
Also if anyone here lives in Victoria or near by who love that little short cut can help, the more people who know can stop the company of their idea.
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Post by Ferryman on Nov 8, 2010 23:24:41 GMT -8
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Post by Nickfro on Nov 9, 2010 9:15:01 GMT -8
From the link Chris provided above. . .
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Post by lmtengs on Nov 9, 2010 15:25:59 GMT -8
Didn't they once again toss the idea of the TSA-P.Hdy-P.Rt route?
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Neil
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Posts: 7,151
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Post by Neil on Nov 9, 2010 21:51:57 GMT -8
"We're not making a recommendation or a proposal," B.C. Ferries CEO David Hahn said Monday of the report's contents.
"We're just talking off the tops of our heads". Well, he didn't quite say that.
In a way, I'm sort of glad BC Ferries came out with some of this stuff, even if parts of it are somewhat outlandish.
This could be seen as a reality check for the province. When they set up BC Ferries in its current form, they decreed that it must operate as a private company, and must work toward becoming self sufficient, with routes -all routes- moving toward an increased user pay operating model. Fine, says BC Ferries. Since that's what you want, this is what we need to do to achieve that. Cut 'redundant' routes, jack up rates even more than we've done in the past on 'minor' routes, and cut service where possible.
The province has been coasting along, letting BC Ferries get closer and closer to a cash crunch or a crisis in capital improvement requirements, all the while refusing to increase subsidies to routes that can never break even, and would not be expected to break even if they were in Europe where ferries are funded more sensibly. I think BC Ferries is trying to wake them up. Lets see if the province just hits the snooze button and turns over for a couple more years, until maybe it will be the NDP's problem.
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Post by lmtengs on Nov 9, 2010 22:15:41 GMT -8
"We're not making a recommendation or a proposal," B.C. Ferries CEO David Hahn said Monday of the report's contents."We're just talking off the tops of our heads". Well, he didn't quite say that. In a way, I'm sort of glad BC Ferries came out with some of this stuff, even if parts of it are somewhat outlandish. This could be seen as a reality check for the province. When they set up BC Ferries in its current form, they decreed that it must operate as a private company, and must work toward becoming self sufficient, with routes -all routes- moving toward an increased user pay operating model. Fine, says BC Ferries. Since that's what you want, this is what we need to do to achieve that. Cut 'redundant' routes, jack up rates even more than we've done in the past on 'minor' routes, and cut service where possible. The province has been coasting along, letting BC Ferries get closer and closer to a cash crunch or a crisis in capital improvement requirements, all the while refusing to increase subsidies to routes that can never break even, and would not be expected to break even if they were in Europe where ferries are funded more sensibly. I think BC Ferries is trying to wake them up. Lets see if the province just hits the snooze button and turns over for a couple more years, until maybe it will be the NDP's problem. Good points Neil. Which party has a better past when it comes to supporting the ferries? The NDP or the Libs?
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Post by Balfour on Nov 9, 2010 22:20:59 GMT -8
So Luke,
How is this question supposed to contribute to the discussion at hand?
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Quatchi
Voyager
Engineering Officer - CCG
Posts: 930
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Post by Quatchi on Nov 9, 2010 22:38:33 GMT -8
Hey Viking,
Whats a better way to get across a river, a bridge or a camel?
Now for relevant discussion,
I always though that BCF would last until just after the Olympics and then the whole thing would crumble and the government would step in. This hasn't happened yet, but I could see something happening int he near future with all the instability that we have at the moment. Hahn may say like it is, but he may do what the premier tells him and actually keep quite about some things.
Personally I think the system will crash in the next few years, as far as I see it it is unsustainable, especially considering the capital improvements that will be required soon. It will be interesting to see what happens when certain ships are condemned and BCF has no money to replace them, will the government help out? Will the runs go under?
I think we will see a major reduction in redundant services, and a big "TOO BAD" to many customers as Hahn single handed throws another government out of power over ferries in BC.
Cheers,
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Post by Low Light Mike on Nov 20, 2010 8:32:41 GMT -8
BC Ferries recently released their 2010/11 2nd quarter results. Along with this, Mr. Hahn has been recently quoted in various news stories with a warning message about heavy operating losses that the company is expected to suffer during the next 18 months. The reasons cited are declining passenger traffic that's not expected to improve and increasing vessel maintenance costs.
So why is this just a problem for the next 18 months? Well, 18 months after their recent 9/30/2010 reporting-date would take them to March 31, 2012, which is the end of "Performance Term #2". That's the end of this period where the company has had to make-due with pre-set funding and service levels from the Government and pre-set tariff-caps.
BCF is setting the scene for the start of Term #3 where they will need a combination of increased revenue or decreased costs.
- They can increase revenues by getting a higher service-fee from the Province. If the Province doesn't do this, then the alternative is to raise tariff fees (ie. user fares).
- They can decrease some costs by cutting service levels. Fewer sailings or elimination of routes.
It seems like the corporate message from BCF is strong and will be alluding to the horrible next 18 months under the old contract, in hopes of shaping public and government opinion to result in changes to the contract for Term#3.
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Neil
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Posts: 7,151
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Post by Neil on Nov 20, 2010 10:47:59 GMT -8
It seems like the corporate message from BCF is strong and will be alluding to the horrible next 18 months under the old contract, in hopes of shaping public and government opinion to result in changes to the contract for Term#3. It is something of a shift in attitude for BC Ferries. David Hahn has in the past stated his disinclination to ask for a bigger subsidy, and at the general meeting two summers ago, Rob Clarke was absolutely sanguine about the company's long term debt structure, and did not focus at all on financial crunches or service cuts under the present arrangement. Now we get the true picture of doom and gloom for the next contract period if things don't change. It's not as if BC Ferries has just run into some incredible unforseen expenses. They must have known two years ago what the situation was going to be at the end of the contract, so I don't know what accounts for the apparent change in attitude. In any event, with the turmoil in Victoria presently, who knows how the message is being received.
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Neil
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Posts: 7,151
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Post by Neil on Nov 21, 2010 13:08:26 GMT -8
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Post by Low Light Mike on Jan 11, 2011 20:40:57 GMT -8
Here's a January 2011 item from the Ferry Commissioner's website. - it's the prelim "return on equity" figure that will be used in the term-3 Price-Cap calculations. What's interesting to me in this, is comments by the commissioner on the effect, if any, of the recent "must consider the users' interests" new legislation from the Province. - so for those who are interested in that issue, and can wade through the pricing-model terminology, this here report is an indication of how BCF & the Commissioner are responding to the new rules from the Province. www.bcferrycommission.com/BCFCMemo041_Prelim_RoE_PT3_rev1_copy.pdf
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Post by dofd on Jan 11, 2011 22:27:51 GMT -8
Documents like this are always a joy to read. It makes you work, but just a little bit. (Damn Lawyers!)
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Post by EGfleet on Feb 4, 2011 13:01:04 GMT -8
B.C. ferry fares could skyrocketLast Updated: Friday, February 4, 2011 | 12:54 PM PT CBC News Fares on some BC Ferries routes could increase by more than 100 per cent.Ferry fares may be heading for a big increase unless the provincial government provides BC Ferries with a bigger subsidy. Over the next four years, fare increases on major routes will go up 20 per cent and double on smaller routes, according to a plan submitted by the ferry corporation. In an interview on Shaw TV on Thursday, BC Ferries CEO David Hahn said the projected rise in rates is "substantial" unless service is cut or the government provides a larger subsidy. "It could be somewhere between 12 and 14 per cent on the minor routes and on the north — this will blow everybody away — it's 26 per cent [per year for four years]," Hahn said. The decision is in the hands of an independent ferry commissioner, who will issue a ruling on the submission at the end of March. It will then be up to the province to accept the increases, cut service levels on some routes or increase BC Ferries' $150-million annual subsidy. Read more: www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/02/04/bc-ferry-fares.html#ixzz1D1fxjb6X
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mrdot
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Mr. DOT
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Post by mrdot on Feb 4, 2011 13:18:48 GMT -8
:)lets get real, what private co. is in line for an increase of it's already 150 million $ subsidy, private my xoxo! As for mr. Hahn, don't bother criticizing the management of Washington State Ferries which does not remunarate anyone to the order of a million $! :)mrdot.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Feb 4, 2011 14:01:00 GMT -8
I've move the previous 2 posts into this thread, because we all know that any fare-increase speculation at this time is related to the negotiations for "Term 3".
So the quotes in this news story (2 posts before this one) are of course posturing and BC Ferries painting a worst-case scenario.
For those who are outraged by the possible high increases, now is the time to complain, and learned complainers will complain to the Gov't minister or to their MLA. Because the key issue here is what the Province of BC will do with setting the subsidy-level for the upcoming term-3.
This is one of those rare times (every 4 years) where you can lobby your Govt person to have them increase the subsidy. - your other opportunity happens at Provincial election time. Other than that, Mr. Hahn and BC Ferries are just operating in the parameters that have been set for them by the Government...
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Post by Nickfro on Feb 4, 2011 14:35:18 GMT -8
Thanks for outlining the best thread to post this stuff, Flugel. I have here another article about this... Link to article HERE.
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Post by Political Incorrectness on Feb 4, 2011 14:39:30 GMT -8
This is a vicious cycle that has been created. There is an efficient level of subsidy needed and the response to less traffic should not be to raise fares, there should be incentives to have people travel.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Feb 4, 2011 14:59:26 GMT -8
Here's the key piece from the story that Nickfro quoted: " It's very substantial," Hahn agreed. "The ferry advisory committees in the local communities have been very aware of this for the last two or three years. The government has, as well. There's a big policy decision looming off of this, and we'll see what happens. I'm sure both parties (are watching.)"
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The commissioner reports out March 31. The government then has to the end of June to reply. Which, as it happens, slots the decision-making in the midst of leadership transition for both of the major political parties.
"I guess for ferry users it's probably a good time to have that conversation, " Hahn agreed. "It's a pretty serious conversation that needs to take place, I would argue, with both parties as to what their position is. " ...so stay tuned for late June 2011, to see how the Government will respond. This will be a very important decision affecting many people, communities and the economy.
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Post by Scott on Feb 4, 2011 22:51:23 GMT -8
This is one way to bring BC Ferries into the discussion of the Liberal and NDP leadership debates. It's an issue I'd like to hear the leadership candidates opinions on. So far I've heard John Horgan's response which was just to raise the "red-herring" issue of David Hahn's salary - whether you agree with his salary or not, it doesn't address the real issue facing the ferry-dependant communities in the coming years.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Feb 5, 2011 8:53:23 GMT -8
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Neil
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Posts: 7,151
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Post by Neil on Feb 5, 2011 10:41:51 GMT -8
It's hard to be optimistic that the provincial government will finally revisit the issue of BC Ferries' subsidy, when you hear the idiotic response of Kevin Falcon to the latest figures on possible fare increases.
Falcon said that David Hahn was just 'negotiating' and that BC Ferries had to take a hard look at finding economies within their operation.
They're not 'negotiating'. They're letting the government know what it will cost to operate exactly as the government told them to operate. Once again, if Falcon's mindset rules the day, the government will slough off their responsibility to provide basic transportation needs for thousands of people onto a 'private' operator.
As for John Horgan and all the open line ranters and anonymous emailers who pass for public discourse these days, some simple math might be in order.
BC Ferries carries about 22 million passengers a years. David Hahn makes about a million dollars, and is by far the most handsomely remunerated body at BC Ferries. If he and all the other execs and some of the top union employees took a 50% pay cut, you might be able to gain a 20 cent (not per cent) drop in fares across the board. Maybe.
We need a more intelligent discussion around costs than just nattering about salaries, and that starts with Falcon and others in the Liberal government indicating that they care about coastal and island communities. I've never once heard Kevin Falcon say one word to indicate that he does.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Feb 5, 2011 14:53:27 GMT -8
- Well we are trying to discuss the real issues here, surrounding the Term-3 submission and the possible outcomes of it. It's a real 3-step process that's simple to follow. Part 1 has been done, and we're waiting for Parts 2 & 3... what private co. is in line for an increase of it's already 150 million $ subsidy, private my xoxo - the issue isn't whether they are private or not. That discussion is semantics and isn't really relevant to the fare-increase and underfunding issue. Most of us have gotten past the "private" charade a long time ago. We get that its still a public service, publicly funded, and should be accountable to the public. As for mr. Hahn, don't bother criticizing the management of Washington State Ferries - I think there is lots to criticize or comment-on about both WSF and BCFerries and how they are managed. But they are very different systems (different styles of routes, different passenger profiles), both with their own challenges. ... which does not remunarate anyone to the order of a million $! :)mrdot. - and bringing-up that issue always seems to discredit someone's comment. Why? Well I've seen enough of that rhetoric in the newspaper comments/letters, and to me the bringing-up of his salary (accompanied by a lack of intelligent discussion on the actual relevant issue) is usually a sign to not take someone's comment seriously. You'll find examples of this clogging-up type of comment in most of the feedback to stories in the Tyee on their occasional ferry stories, in Province/Sun, and I've seen enough in the local Nanaimo papers too.
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