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Post by Low Light Mike on Dec 31, 2011 22:19:24 GMT -8
What are your ferry predictions for 2012?
Here's mine: - the BCF coastal-class ships will be "unwrapped" in 2012. We'll once again see what they look like under that Gordo-wrap (Mr. DOT's phrase).
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Post by Scott (Former Account) on Dec 31, 2011 22:53:16 GMT -8
My prediction: Route 1 crews aboard the Renaissance and Celebration will discover that the Airchime whistle control actually can change the whistle from a single note to a chord through the whistle select option. CHORD, CHORD, CHORD, CHORD, CHORD, CHORD!!! ;D ...now everyone together in three-part harmony **raises baton** ;D
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Post by DENelson83 on Jan 2, 2012 23:02:24 GMT -8
I hope those ferry fares will finally start to stabilize under Corrigan, and possibly even drop, if only by a little bit.
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Post by lmtengs on Jan 3, 2012 15:34:13 GMT -8
Yea, like I suggested in the other New Years thread, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some plans for a new ship get tossed around the table at BCF's head office.
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Post by glasseye on Jan 3, 2012 21:38:23 GMT -8
In 2012, I predict BCFS will have at least two allisions where a ferry crashes into fixed terminal infrastructure causing either the ferry, berth or both to be out of service for at least seven days.
BCFS will not sink a vessel, have a hard grounding, or have a collision involving a ship or another ferry.
Ticket prices (fares + fuel surcharges) will rise unless the price of oil undergoes a major correction.
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Post by Dane on Jan 4, 2012 18:36:11 GMT -8
Yea, like I suggested in the other New Years thread, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some plans for a new ship get tossed around the table at BCF's head office. I agree. But to further the comment with my opinion, they will be tossed and tossed and tossed. Then someone participating in the tossing will look at the provincial budget and BCFS's debt, and the tossing would resume until the plans wore out are became useless (except that cable ferry). It would be fantastic if I am wrong. Hopefully I am.
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Post by lmtengs on Jan 4, 2012 18:54:07 GMT -8
Yea, like I suggested in the other New Years thread, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some plans for a new ship get tossed around the table at BCF's head office. I agree. But to further the comment with my opinion, they will be tossed and tossed and tossed. Then someone participating in the tossing will look at the provincial budget and BCFS's debt, and the tossing would resume until the plans wore out are became useless (except that cable ferry). It would be fantastic if I am wrong. Hopefully I am. Exactly the reason I used the word tossed around, and didn't go so far as to say they'll consider building a new ship. ;D Yeah, that cable ferry, if (or when) it does end up getting built, will be quite the attraction for us ferryists. Quite a feat of engineering, it would be, if they expect to keep it in service during storms. I might email one of my SketchUp designs to BCF just to see what they take of it as a QoBurnaby/Nanaimo replacement. Not expecting anything to come of it, but it would be awesome if a similar design actually did get built.
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Post by lmtengs on Jan 4, 2012 18:54:53 GMT -8
Yea, like I suggested in the other New Years thread, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some plans for a new ship get tossed around the table at BCF's head office. I agree. But to further the comment with my opinion, they will be tossed and tossed and tossed. Then someone participating in the tossing will look at the provincial budget and BCFS's debt, and the tossing would resume until the plans wore out are became useless (except that cable ferry). It would be fantastic if I am wrong. Hopefully I am. Exactly the reason I used the word tossed around, and didn't go so far as to say they'll consider building a new ship. ;D Yeah, that cable ferry, if (or when) it does end up getting built, will be quite the attraction for us ferryists. Quite a feat of engineering, it would be, if they expect to keep it in service during storms. I might email one of my SketchUp designs to BCF just to see what they take of it as a QoBurnaby/Nanaimo replacement. Not expecting anything to come of it, but it would be awesome if a similar design actually did get built.
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Nick
Voyager
Chief Engineer - Queen of Richmond
Posts: 2,078
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Post by Nick on Jan 4, 2012 19:45:54 GMT -8
Yea, like I suggested in the other New Years thread, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some plans for a new ship get tossed around the table at BCF's head office. I agree. But to further the comment with my opinion, they will be tossed and tossed and tossed. Then someone participating in the tossing will look at the provincial budget and BCFS's debt, and the tossing would resume until the plans wore out are became useless (except that cable ferry). It would be fantastic if I am wrong. Hopefully I am. Regardless of the province's or BCFS's debt levels, the fact remains that the Burnaby and Nanaimo are nearing the end of their lives, and replacements must be built soon if the service is to continue. My personal prediction: BCF and the province will experience a major policy shift, either in 2012 or 2013, aimed at improving the CFA of 2003. I don't for a second believe it will revert to a crown corporation, but I'm hopeful we might see some progress on that front.
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Post by Dane on Jan 4, 2012 19:51:24 GMT -8
I agree with you in principal Nick, but politicians who ultimately control BCFS have sufficient say in the spending of the "private company" that irrationality can lead to the maintenance of inappropriate assets. Look at the Queen of Chilliwack, she ought to be the poster child of poor planning by BCFS and the provincial government. It seems almost hard to believe she is cleared to sail with the issues TC had in the past few years.
If the Navy can keep 50+ year supply ships sort of running, I am sure the province wouldn't hesitate a minute to save some dollars.
When is BC legislated to have an election, anyways? That will be critical.
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Post by lmtengs on Jan 4, 2012 20:01:37 GMT -8
I agree with you in principal Nick, but politicians who ultimately control BCFS have sufficient say in the spending of the "private company" that irrationality can lead to the maintenance of inappropriate assets. Look at the Queen of Chilliwack, she ought to be the poster child of poor planning by BCFS and the provincial government. It seems almost hard to believe she is cleared to sail with the issues TC had in the past few years. If the Navy can keep 50+ year supply ships sort of running, I am sure the province wouldn't hesitate a minute to save some dollars. When is BC legislated to have an election, anyways? That will be critical. If BCF keeps the Burnaby and Nanaimo much longer than 2017, it won't be 50+ year old ships on our hands, it'll be 60+ year old ships. The older a ship gets, the faster it degrades, as we've seen recently in Washington with the Steel E's. If BCF ends up keeping the Burnaby and Nanaimo that long, they'll be even older than the average Third-World country's fleet. The next election is May 14th, 2013. And how exactly is it hard to believe the QoChilli was cleared to sail? I don't remember reading about any significant safety risks aboard her. They added the MacGregor doors to her recently too, and that only makes her safer.
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Post by Dane on Jan 4, 2012 20:09:39 GMT -8
TC regulations would have had the Chilli out of service by '10 or '11, ish. Amongst the North sinking and BCFS's total inability to meet itsship replacement goals it became clear this would not happen. This was maybe five-ish years ago. BC Ferries appealed TC regulations, and has subsequently done work to bring her to minimal compliance. Next time you are on take a photo of the license, and then look for all the rulings on the vessel's registry. A couple of them are semi-recent on keeping the vessel compliant.
BC Ferries record shows that a third world is probably the best comparison at times. Obviously I say this partially tongue in cheek, but it is eerily true in some respects. Governments typically cannot really plan past five year cycles except for at a high level. It is really too early to be writing the Nanaimo/Burnaby replacement as any sort of gospel.
BC Ferries, I believe, will again become a political hot potato like the 1990's with the right electioneering. This could really benefit the NDP, with the FastCat situation far enough to the past and the destruction of the private company now well evident. Hopefully Clark will call an election before then, given her lack of direct mandate.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Jan 4, 2012 20:28:25 GMT -8
TC regulations would have had the Chilli out of service by '10 or '11, ish.
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Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,150
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Post by Neil on Jan 4, 2012 20:58:53 GMT -8
I don't think BC Ferries is 'tossing around' any plans for replacements. The Tenaka was scheduled to be first to go, but the extensive work of the last two years makes it look like she's being kept around for longer.
BC Ferries has no money for new boats, and I would guess that Christy Clark can gain more politically by putting money into reducing or levelling the fare structure than into newbuilding.
The west coast of North America is the geriatric ward of the ferry world, and that looks to continue for the forseeable future. Dane may think his comments are tongue in cheek, but truly, outside of the third world, this is the region where rustbucket ferries are the most prevalent.
BCinNJ recently posted an interesting story in the international section about a conference of ferry operators in the developing world where the aim was expressed that owners needed to move toward renewed fleets that were more in keeping with modern construction and safety standards. So, maybe, in future even the phrase 'outside of the third world' won't even apply to the state of this region's ferry fleet.
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Post by roeco on Jan 24, 2012 20:06:06 GMT -8
I can see BC Ferries reducing sailings on many smaller ruoutes, like why do we need 3 terminals on Salt Spring Island??? Theirs alot of service reductions they could do their. I think a max of two with maybe Crofton to Vesuvius operating a 12 hr day and Close the Long Harbour terminal. Keeping Swartz Bay to Fulford Harbour and maybe cutting 1-2 sailings a day. During the refit season put the Chilli on the Tsawassen-Long Harbour route, much better suited for her. And use the Nanaimo and Burnaby to run the Comox-Powell River service. Maybe put a Coastal class ship on Horseshoe Bay to Langdale run during peak periods.
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mrdot
Voyager
Mr. DOT
Posts: 1,252
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Post by mrdot on Jan 24, 2012 20:31:54 GMT -8
:)because saltspring island won't decide any electoral vote, I guess we would be eleminatiing the long harbour long haul route, which would radically change gulf islands service. this would be the first of radical cost cuts, which are bound to come over the years, regardless of who might form government. I fear gov't will have many other cuts, everywhere, over the years to come, and perhaps real privatization will come, but only on routes were free ent. could make profits! thats how risky dot. sees it! :)mrdot.
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Post by dofd on Jan 25, 2012 0:51:35 GMT -8
I guess is the question is where do we put are tax dollars, everyone wants something for nothing.
Healthcare Daycare Teachers wages Nursing home BC Employment and Assistance
Just a list.
So where does BC ferries fall into this, take tax dollars and maybe put it back into highways. Put BC Ferries back to the highways.
Tax will go up.
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Post by dofd on May 14, 2012 21:23:16 GMT -8
Flugel Horn quick thought. At current fares:
How much would people save going back to the PST? Was there GST before? Never thought about it, always just payed.
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Post by Low Light Mike on May 15, 2012 5:01:33 GMT -8
Flugel Horn quick thought. At current fares: How much would people save going back to the PST? Was there GST before? Never thought about it, always just payed. See this post for the HST impact on BCFerries; it is more to do with the non-refundable HST that BCFerries has to pay and include in its costs. ferriesbc.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=bcferriesnews&thread=1696&page=8#121018Regarding your own traveller costs, if you take the narrow "what I pay on my invoice" approach, you'll only see a tax-reduction on food service and some gift shop items. There is no HST/GST on the ferry fares. But if you understand that ferry fares are determined in part by ferry company costs, then the move to GST will reduce some of these BCFerries costs, all other things being equal. - But then there's the trickle-down impact of BCFerries' own suppliers having lower costs in HST system, and higher costs in the GST&PST system. The "all other things being equal" concept is a stumbling block for many when analysing the impact of the different sales taxes. All other things are never equal, and people usually just focus on the most visible impact (which is their invoice / ticket stub). I believe that the HST is a better tax than the GST, because it is a fully integrated value-added-tax. The PST & GST combination is a tax-on-tax (economically speaking) and that kind of compounded tax is pretty un-progressive.
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Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,150
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Post by Neil on Dec 26, 2017 21:38:18 GMT -8
Ferry predictions, 2018:
Given recent traffic figures, and the last annual report, I predict that the next fiscal summary will see the first ever black ink report for route thirty. Drop trailer growth seems to be healthy, capacity utilization is up, and I'm glad to see the new government at least entertaining the notion of a third vessel on the route for part of the year. It was done before.
Tsawwassen has five berths, but I wonder if we might see the development of that stub at Duke Point that was put there specifically for future growth. The nautical history facebook site also mentioned a rumor of overnight drop trailer runs. Could be interesting times.
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Post by Dane on Dec 26, 2017 23:40:45 GMT -8
I agree with that all - but I’m left to wonder, what’s the extra Route 30 boat? The Bowen Queen on a four hour ferry nerd sailing with full snack bar service? Haha
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Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,150
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Post by Neil on Dec 26, 2017 23:51:01 GMT -8
I agree with that all - but I’m left to wonder, what’s the extra Route 30 boat? The Bowen Queen on a four hour ferry nerd sailing with full snack bar service? Haha The Nimpkish will be available next summer, too, and thanks to Todd Stone, she has potable water to offer tourists...
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Post by compdude787 on Dec 27, 2017 11:56:09 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure that the Nimpkish will be retired. She is not much more useful to BC Ferries than the Hiyu was for WSF.
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Post by Low Light Mike on Dec 27, 2017 12:26:04 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure that the Nimpkish will be retired. She is not much more useful to BC Ferries than the Hiyu was for WSF. It was satire. No worries. Merry Christmas, CompDude ☺
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Post by Starsteward on Dec 27, 2017 12:50:10 GMT -8
Are we likely to see this government follow through with the elimination of ferry fares for Seniors in 2018? and...one free cup of coffee for ex-employees?
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