|
Post by WettCoast on May 11, 2012 10:27:12 GMT -8
The NDP will also have to expedite the building of replacement ships. After the Capilano and Cumberland were completed they did not build vessels that relieved the older ships. That has to end. You have said this before. It was not true then and its not true now. The Spirit sisters were built and completed during the NDP tenure. The SoBC was already underway when they took power, but it was the NDP that made the decision to proceed with the SoVI. You are also forgetting about the Skeena Queen which entered service in 1997.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 11, 2012 12:38:56 GMT -8
That would involve paying for an expensive overtime shift, and having the boat sail back empty from Langdale, all for the sake of transporting a handful of Sechelt Peninsula concert goers. Given that island communities are likely to be scrambling to preserve the service they now have, I don't think anyone is likely to be supporting that kind of service expansion. Neil, I realize that it's not going to happen, at least for the forseeable future - it was tried during the Olympics and it didn't work, sadly. My idea was just a thought. And i'm aware of the overtime costs etc... Many young sunshine coasters do support this kind of expansion. Should I call them whiners instead? ;D The small 10 min routes shouldn't have their late night runs cut, IMO. But does Denman Island need 17 sailings a day?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 11, 2012 13:17:49 GMT -8
Capacity Utilization Route #3 In the off season there are probably a number of sailings that are quite empty. would a ship with a samller capacity(270 vehicles) like the Queen of New West. she is faster than the Esquimalt was so shoudn't have any trouble holding to schedule. If Sunshine Coasters weren't being a bunch of whiny upchucks, we'd have the Queen of Alberni on the route, and probably around 3/4 to 5/6 of the current volume of sailings during the off-season. They really don't need the huge spaces of the Queen of Surrey/Coquitlam on such a short route. It's all a matter of how stuck-up people can be. Since you have no problem jumping to the conclusion that every Sunshine Coaster is a whiner when it comes to BCF, can you mention some examples to back your claim? Yes, a few Sunshine Coasters feel like they should get an O/H walkway at Langdale and yes, the FAC complains that the 5:30 sailing is 20 minutes later in the summer. But not all Sunshine Coasters wine like you seem to think. Just because the FAC and a small group of commuters want special treatment in the ferry system, doesn't mean every Sunshine Coaster feels the same way. -It seems to be a small group making noise by overusing the FAC. Secondly, route 3 has 56% capacity utilization in the system. The 3rd highest across the board. As a mainlander, I don't think you ride route 3 too often, and probably not aware of the spread out in traffic aross sailings. Also, route 3 actually brings in net revenue for BCF. If you think the Alberni is suitable, Viking, I would suggest you ride the 1730 sailing on a Friday evening β even in January. Or the 0620 sailing on any given weekday. Or ask someone that actually lives on the Sunshine Coast that regularly rides the ferry. I recall that when BCF wanted to cancel the lowest used sailings 3 years ago - the 6:30pm-7:25pm on Saturday and the 6:20am-7:20am on Sunday, Deborah Marshall mentioned in the Coast Reporter that the 7:25 pm on Saturdays was averaging 46% utilization. Not bad if you look at some other minor routes in the system. I do believe that the Cowichan should be on route 3, just like 1996 and before - route 2 could use the extra lounge space on the Surrey if BCF doesn't want to use the CR, and many people stay in their cars on route 3. There also is many foot passenger commuters (~500-600 on any given weekday is what i've read in the paper), so route 3 needs quite a bit more passenger deck space than the Alberni has. -The reason that some Sunshine Coasters used to prevent the the trading of the Surrey to bring back the Cowichan β that they feel a special attachment β is garbage, IMO. Itβs not like the Surrey is an older ship with heritage. Gordon, I agree that New West sized ship would be suitable in the off-season, however, with the tight schedule (20 min. turnaround in the winter), route 3 needs a double ender. Route 3 is quite unique - i'm not saying it should recieve special treatment. It's longer than all the other routes (except for the North Coast) that has a community depending on it. Sports teams take early morning and midday sailings, often coming back on the second last sailing, there's the commuters of course, there's young people going in to Vancouver, more than just a handful of concert-goers, some actually go to enjoy the more active city itself.
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on May 11, 2012 13:20:15 GMT -8
The small 10 min routes shouldn't have their late night runs cut, IMO. But does Denman Island really need 17 sailings a day? From the latest annual report to the ferry commissioner, we see that BC Ferries netted a total of 726 extra round trips throughout the entire system. 490 of them were on the Denman and Hornby runs. So, does Denman need seventeen a day? Apparently Paul thinks they're vastly overserved, but a look at the stats and a little personal experience shows otherwise.
|
|
|
Post by Northern Exploration on May 11, 2012 13:22:06 GMT -8
Why? Any accountant or person in the accounting department knows coffee and the labour making it costs money. Re-fills are expensive. Haha, that's why they are referred to as "bean counters". Do you have a spreadsheet that highlights how many beans per cup cross referenced by the optimum number of cups made per man hour used?
|
|
|
Post by lmtengs on May 11, 2012 14:49:43 GMT -8
The small 10 min routes shouldn't have their late night runs cut, IMO. But does Denman Island really need 17 sailings a day? From the latest annual report to the ferry commissioner, we see that BC Ferries netted a total of 726 extra round trips throughout the entire system. 490 of them were on the Denman and Hornby runs. So, does Denman need seventeen a day? Apparently Paul thinks they're vastly overserved, but a look at the stats and a little personal experience shows otherwise. Could the majority of these round trips have been during a time when a smaller vessel was serving while the normal ship was in refit? What's the average year-to-year number?
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on May 11, 2012 15:12:14 GMT -8
From the latest annual report to the ferry commissioner, we see that BC Ferries netted a total of 726 extra round trips throughout the entire system. 490 of them were on the Denman and Hornby runs. So, does Denman need seventeen a day? Apparently Paul thinks they're vastly overserved, but a look at the stats and a little personal experience shows otherwise. Could the majority of these round trips have been during a time when a smaller vessel was serving while the normal ship was in refit? What's the average year-to-year number? It's not an anomaly, and it's not caused by refit. Year after year, these two routes have half or more of the total extra runs in the system- the boats are not big enough to handle traffic during peak times and through much of the summer, so shuttling is a regular occurence, doing a round trip every forty minutes or so instead of hourly as scheduled.
|
|
|
Post by Low Light Mike on May 12, 2012 7:19:59 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Low Light Mike on May 12, 2012 8:02:01 GMT -8
An excerpt from an article in the Vancouver Sun: from here: www.vancouversun.com/news/Sinking+fortune+Ferries+Time+abandon+ship/6611534/story.htmlThe fault in the writer's premise is that the small routes aren't just served by locals. If they were, then smaller ships would be ok, and some reduction in scheduled service would also be ok. The residents would adjust to some strategically-placed reductions. (ie. "everyone knows that the ferry doesn't run on Wednesday afternoons, we we plan around that"). But these small routes also serve tourists and other non-local visitors. For instance, the Denman & Hornby Island routes have huge increases in volume caused by seasonal tourism activity. That's not because of the few locals who chose to live there. The frequency of sailings and size of ships is sometimes set for the tourist levels, not the "rest of the year" levels. I think that there is a place for seasonally-adjusted schedules, re the number of sailings, for reductions in the obvious off-season. But the writer's premise that the small routes are only servicing residents who chose to live on the islands is false. Tourism to Supernatural BC, "The Best Place on Earth" includes our coastline. That's one of our Province's key features and it's one of our key selling points to the rest of the world as we invite them to visit us. So those small ferry routes are not just for the locals.
|
|
|
Post by oceaneer77 on May 14, 2012 21:28:51 GMT -8
Its all coming undone! But to redo the system is going to take allot of time. My best experience in on the Denman Hornby runs. The ferry system has depopulated the islands and or changed the demographics. I grew up on Denman, We had 89 kids as the elementary school and Hornby had over 100 ( 1980s), When I was back last summer the locals told me the numbers were less then half of that. When I lived there most of the families had jobs on the big island and commuted. But as the fares squeezed up and up the costs forced a migration and demographic shift away from commuting. The ferry system now needs to repopulate /change the demographic to increase ridership. It is going to take as long as it took to break the system to fix.
But at least the horrible experiment is almost over. I wonder how big of a mess that it really is, we will see when we get the real books that have not been cooked and stewed!
But its going to give us some lively topics on the forms to discuss to I guess that there is one plus to the whole mess? Oceaneer
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on May 14, 2012 22:05:47 GMT -8
Its all coming undone! But to redo the system is going to take allot of time. My best experience in on the Denman Hornby runs. The ferry system has depopulated the islands and or changed the demographics. I grew up on Denman, We had 89 kids as the elementary school and Hornby had over 100 ( 1980s), When I was back last summer the locals told me the numbers were less then half of that. When I lived there most of the families had jobs on the big island and commuted. But as the fares squeezed up and up the costs forced a migration and demographic shift away from commuting. The ferry system now needs to repopulate /change the demographic to increase ridership. It is going to take as long as it took to break the system to fix. But at least the horrible experiment is almost over. I wonder how big of a mess that it really is, we will see when we get the real books that have not been cooked and stewed! But its going to give us some lively topics on the forms to discuss to I guess that there is one plus to the whole mess? Oceaneer It may be overstating things a bit to say that the Coastal Ferry Act and the whole attitude toward the 'minor routes' has been an exercise in social engineering. Or maybe not. Massive increases in property values have played a large role in transforming the demographics of many islands, but without question, never ending ferry fare hikes that far outstrip increases in the cost of living have contributed significantly to many people no longer being able to live in island communities. I don't think island populations have dropped significantly. The type of people who can afford to live there has changed, as well as the mobility and disposable incomes of some, after transportation costs are factored in.
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on Jun 19, 2012 18:27:12 GMT -8
An example of a ridiculous waste of taxpayers' money, as well as classic bureaucratic bafflegab, is found in quotations in this article describing some sort of 'consultation' with the public regarding the future of our ferry system. Bottom line: stall until you can pass the whole thing off to the NDP. thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/BC-Politics/2012/06/19/FerryDelay/
|
|
|
Post by WettCoast on Jun 19, 2012 19:32:37 GMT -8
The census data shows that population is declining on almost all of the Gulf Islands. Could ferry fares have something to do with that?
Do you have the data from the 2001 census that will allow a comparison over a period of 10 years?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2012 19:39:33 GMT -8
I would say "yes."
|
|
|
Post by Dane on Jun 19, 2012 19:53:32 GMT -8
The information in this post is free. Except for Paul, you can send me $5 for my services.
--
Population Changes - Hornby Island ----------------------------------------------
Population in 2011 - 958 Population in 2006 - 1,074 Population in 2001 - 966
Population Changes - Denman Island ------------------------------------------------
Population in 2011 - 1,022 Population in 2006 - 1,095 Population in 2001 - 1,016
Population Changes - Quadra Island ---------------------------------------------- Population in 2011 - 2,601 Population in 2006 - 2,472 Population in 2001 - Not available
Population Changes - Galiano Island ----------------------------------------------
Population in 2011 - 1,138 Population in 2006 - 1,258 Population in 2001 - 1,071
Population Changes - Mayne Island ---------------------------------------------
Population in 2011 - 1,071 Population in 2006 - 1,112 Population in 2001 - 880
Population Changes - Saturna Island ----------------------------------------------- Population in 2011 - 335 Population in 2006 - 359 Population in 2001 - 319
Population Changes - Pender (N. and S. combined) Island ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Population in 2011 - 4,868 Population in 2006 - 5,101 Population in 2001 - 1,953 (this doesn't seem to make sense?)
2001 census numbers were published by the Province in 2003 and republished by Island Trust.
Interesting numbers are the growth from 1996 to 2001, all positive:
Thetis, 12% Bowen, 12% Denman, 4% Gabriola, 11% Galiano, 7% Gambier, 20% Hornby, 3% Mayne, 2% N. Pender, 7% Salt Spring, 0% Saturna, 14% S.Pender, 3%
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on Jun 19, 2012 20:49:39 GMT -8
What the numbers show is that while the province's population is growing steadily although not dramatically, the islands are losing people. Some time back, I related census data from 2001 that showed every single island except for Bowen had a household income below the provincial average. It doesn't take a gifted researcher to understand that constant transportation cost increases well beyond rises in the cost of living are going to drive people away from island communities.
I disagree with Paul that the NDP are also likely to dither on action around ferry issues. I think they will see this as a key area to show a difference with the present government in their attitude toward coastal communities. I don't expect any rollbacks, but I think some stability will be introduced to the pricing structure to alter this damaging expectation of ever ballooning fares.
|
|
|
Post by Dane on Jun 19, 2012 22:15:41 GMT -8
if $5.00 is the fee, go for it. You get what you pay for. What's missing are the base numbers. As in 14% from what? 14% from 200? 100? If you had the base numbers then you would be able to complete a stepped growth. But I'll leave that for those who want to do it. The base number is missing, yes, but you have the end state with the 2001 number. So if you're real keen you can in fact get the 1996 number through the wonders of math. Didn't you just say you do statistical research?
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on Jun 20, 2012 14:51:35 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2012 15:15:38 GMT -8
I argee. I think BC ferries should try do it on low income routes to see if they make profit out of it and BC ferries should keep if they do make a profit out it.
|
|
|
Post by WettCoast on Jun 20, 2012 20:15:46 GMT -8
It would be interesting to compare traffic numbers for WSF's San Juan Islands routes with BCF's Gulf Islands routes over the 10 year period between 2001 & 2011. It is my understanding that fares on WSF's have been going up, but no where close to the rate of increase seen on BC routes. On the other hand, the economy in Washington State has been suffering I think over the last 10 years, perhaps more so than in BC.
It would also be interesting to see census data for the SJ Islands and compare with BC Gulf Islands data.
Are SJI's populations , in general terms, on the decline? Are passenger & vehicle numbers on routes serving these islands on the decline?
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on Jun 20, 2012 21:45:03 GMT -8
It would be interesting to compare traffic numbers for WSF's San Juan Islands routes with BCF's Gulf Islands routes over the 10 year period between 2001 & 2011. It is my understanding that fares on WSF's have been going up, but no where close to the rate of increase seen on BC routes. On the other hand, the economy in Washington State has been suffering I think over the last 10 years, perhaps more so than in BC. It would also be interesting to see census data for the SJ Islands and compare with BC Gulf Islands data. Are SJI's populations , in general terms, on the decline? Are passenger & vehicle numbers on routes serving these islands on the decline? Well, I can think of someone else who would quote you his qualifications as a respected statistician and direct you to do your own research, but this is generally a non-elitist forum where we share our investigations,and my time isn't money, so I won't. San Juan traffic, in terms of total riders, went from 1.791 million in 2003 to 1.727 million in 2011. Vehicles- private and commercial, all sizes, were 852,000 in 2003, and 832,000 in 2011. Population of the four San Juan islands served from the major Anacortes terminal is about 13,500. The five Gulf Islands served from Crofton, Swartz Bay, and Tsawwassen have a population of about 15,500. I don't know if the San Juans have gone up or down. It costs half as much, in the high season, to go to Orcas from Anacortes as to go to Mayne Island from Tsawwassen. For the same time spent on board. Some more perspective, with regard to BC Ferries' execs claims that everybody is down in passenger totals. They are right, for the most part, although other companies are only down marginally, while here, the decline is substantial. Caledonian MacBrayne in Scotland, and Marine Atlantic in eastern Canada were down slightly from 2010 to 2011. Alaska State Ferries were down slightly for passengers, but recorded their highest ever vehicle count. Washington State Ferries were down about 1% on vehicles and passengers. The Steamship Authority in Massachusetts was about the same between 2011 and 2010, and up dramatically for passengers in the first quarter of 2012 from the same period in 2011. Still... I think we really need to pay attention to the figures from Scotland. That tells us what the real effects of high ferry fares are, and what happens when those fares are reduced.
|
|
|
Post by Mike C on Jun 21, 2012 9:01:11 GMT -8
Long time listener, first time caller...
Paul, assuming that I would have to pay you for your time to do research, I decided to spend 15 seconds on Google to look up the Gulf Islands Trust, and do my own hunting. My impression (could be wrong) is that the islands trust exists to help preserve the environment and natural aspects of the islands, not to restrict development, and if it did, it DEFINITELY would have little impact, if at all, on the population of the islands. I have come across absolutely nothing that says there is some sort of shortage of real estate or development on the islands.
|
|
|
Post by Mike C on Jun 21, 2012 9:58:28 GMT -8
Long time listener, first time caller... Paul, assuming that I would have to pay you for your time to do research, I decided to spend 15 seconds on Google to look up the Gulf Islands Trust, and do my own hunting. My impression (could be wrong) is that the islands trust exists to help preserve the environment and natural aspects of the islands, not to restrict development, and if it did, it DEFINITELY would have little impact, if at all, on the population of the islands. I have come across absolutely nothing that says there is some sort of shortage of real estate or development on the islands. Well the Islands Trust does control development through bylaws and other enactments. There's alot more to it than just 15 seconds on a Google Search. Preservation of the environment means restrictions on development. In fact the Islands trust does have authority on land use and land use planning which by enactments, regulates development. The Islands Trst has the power to enact bylaws which regulates land use activites. A person would not be able to come forward and expect to have a 30 unit condo complex approved to be built overlooking Otter Bay for example. That actually happened about 15 years ago, and it was turned down. The Islands Trust: [http://www.islandstrust.bc.ca/poi/ita.cfm ] and as for your other comment, sorry I do not anticipate being paid for research. I do it as a supplementary to paid things I do Have fun in the Gulf Islands sun. I do understand how it works, and how they control land use through bylaws (done by pretty much every municipality and district in BC), and their authority to turn down development (also done by pretty much every municipality and district in BC). They do not restrict development 'just because', it is with the mandate of preserving the environment. That's what I meant. My point is not with the fact that they restrict development - they do (poor wording in my previous post) - however their restrictions do not change the population in the Gulf Islands in a different way than it affects the rest of the province. Your same argument could be made for every municipality/district in this province, with much of the same regulatory power, and most of those locations have seen continuous population increases. If I wanted to buy a home on Pender Island, or any other island for that matter, I would have no trouble finding a place for sale.
|
|
|
Post by Political Incorrectness on Jun 21, 2012 11:28:51 GMT -8
Paul, what is funny is that our ferries are subsidized to a similar amount in terms of total subsidy of BC Ferries as my local paper analyzed. As a percentage of budget, I am not sure. Also, our ferry system does serve a different role. www.kitsapsun.com/news/2010/jul/24/could-wsf-follow-the-course-that-bc-ferries/ What is interesting is that we have similar farebox recovery ratios as you guys. So for the term heavily subsidized the statistics shown here indicates otherwise.
|
|
Neil
Voyager
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by Neil on Jun 21, 2012 11:33:09 GMT -8
I'll ignore Neil's usual smart remarks other than I would provide resources if politely asked in the future. But don't expect detailed analysis each and every time. This is a hobby, it's not a service. You'll provide 'resources' if we ask nicely, and at least twice recently you've asked us to understand that your participation here is a hobby, and not a service. Do some honest pondering with regard to how that comes across, and you might see why you are occasionally the recipient of a cheeky retort. Thirdly, Washington State ferries are heavily subsidised. Washington State is the benifiicary of federal transportation funding that is not available on an equivalentcy basis to B.C. from Ottawa .As I've seen from sailing the Bremerton to Seattle route, ferry travel is cheap compared to the same time and length crossing here on The South Coast. That's a product of heavy subsidies given to WSF by the Washington State government. Washington receivies federal money for highway maintainance from the U.S. federal government. B.C. does not receive much of anything equivalent from Ottawa. So with that one $1.00 coming from the federal government in Washington DC, Washington State can pull $1.00 from its State Highway budget for maintainance and move it elsewhere, such as to Washington State Ferries. WSF's operating subsidy is, in fact, about one quarter ($45 million or so) that of BC Ferries', to carry approximately the same traffic. Yes, their routes are shorter, but they do not get a "heavy" subsidy by our standards. BC Ferries also gets a direct federal subsidy of $27 million, which WSF does not get. Fourth, the U.S. Gulf Islands are not in an Islands Trust as are the Canadian Gulf Islands are. The San Juans are within Island County which most likely has land use controls, although I'm guessing not as strict as that with the Islands Trust. Island County government runs differently than the Islands Trust does and in so doing the land use control and growth would be different, but I'm assuming not by much as Island County would most likely want to protect the unique character of the Islands as opposed to allowing runaway development. The Island trust regards the Gulf Islands as a quasi-protected area (the primary mandate of the Islands Trust is ensure the Gulf Islands are protected from development enroachment) and as such limits development. In other words there's a marked difference in governance, and therefore how the Gulf Islands in the States are habited than ours. The governance is the same, in the sense that both county and Trust representatives are elected, and so presumably reflect at least some of the concerns of the people who elected them. I think the consensus is that developmental pressures have played a much greater role than the Islands Trust in suppressing population growth, in that many renters and families have been displaced by largely absentee owners converting properties to seasonal vacation rentals, and in fact that is something the Trust has tried to mitigate. The population of San Juan County grew about 12% between the 2000 and 2010 census, slightly less than Washington as a whole. The growth in Islands Trust areas as a whole was less than that. In regards to the Caledonian ferry service there might be some aspects to look at but there are again differences in terms of services and funding. In other words what works best for Scotland may not be 100% workable here as there are differences. The best route is to take a look at it, and see what the diferences are, and search for compatibilities that might be able to be applied here. Too simplistic to take what is done elsewhere and just apply it here 100%. Ideally see what's out there, examine it, see what could work here and what doesn't, modify for our usuage environment and there ya go. So... you have another example of fare reductions, which is more apt? CalMac is wholly owned by the Scottish government, and provides 'lifeline' services to small island and peninsular communities, often equivalent to the 'minor' routes BC Ferries serves, where there is no prospect of turning a profit. It receives a subsidy which is not radically out of line with the total aid BC Ferries gets, taking into account volume of traffic carried. Scotland is a first world jurisdiction, with an economy somewhat on a level with ours. The similarities are obvious, and the RET program, should you care to look into it, is a worthwhile study with lessons for us here in BC. My point is not with the fact that they restrict development - they do (poor wording in my previous post) - however their restrictions do not change the population in the Gulf Islands in a different way than it affects the rest of the province. Your same argument could be made for every municipality/district in this province, with much of the same regulatory power, and most of those locations have seen continuous population increases. If I wanted to buy a home on Pender Island, or any other island for that matter, I would have no trouble finding a place for sale. I think that's basically true. Houses in my neighborhood on Hornby can be about 2400 square feet, which is not terribly restrictive, and a number of new homes are being built. Trust regulations make commercial development more tricky, but resident opposition is often just as bg a factor. Some Trust restrictions on private property use can be maddeningly arbitrary, as I've found out much to my chagrin, but I don't believe they're the prime factor in population decrease.
|
|