Whats next for BCFC

[oceaneer77]

So i have been thinking back a bit and wondering whats next for BCFC and us to discuss and dissect in detail?

Since i have been checking this board the Queen of the North has sank, Sonia was bought in a hurry and rushed north to have a rather eventful season, then after many refits has settled down into the fleet.
The Queen of Oak Bay had to be put on a diet after a feeding frenzy at horseshoe bay.
The three coastal class vessels were bidded on and the contract went to Germany. A long discussion went on about how the vessels should/could have been built in BC and why WMG did not really try that hard to get the bid. The three super duper Cs have preformed well and really are very well built, although possibly a bit hungrier than expected.
The Island Sky has been designed, built and launched, possibly a bit behind schedule, and put into service where she hopes that she is not homely as the chilliwack..
The Tsawwassen, Esquimant and her other sisters are all fading away into the coastal fog.
BCFC has some Bonds and creative financing looming over it, that would give even the most steel stomach ulcers.
The New West has been received some long overdue and intensive Spa treatments at the north Vancouver ferry spa. And being the Diva that she is decided to stay for just one more treatment....
The Northern Expedition is steaming our way with typical unstoppable German efficiency, and the long serving, never complaining, QPR finally is ready for her voyage into the twilight.

I have probably missed some key events ( feel free to refresh me) but we have had lots to think about and talk about as a group.
So whats the next big thing?
Will BCFC keep up its buying/building program?
Will the next election be a change for the stud of BCFC?
Or?


Thanks
Oceaneer77

[Mike C]

Well, the Newbuild program is pretty much done with. Despite the huge number of ships that BCFS was originally going to build, it seems as though it's easier said than done; they're a little short on cash right now.

So, Dane made a hypothesis in an earlier thread - only one or two more boats within the next 7-8 years - and I'm led to believe that is correct.

BCFS has proposed the Northern Discovery as a (much-needed) replacement to the Queen of Chilliwack, although that's still in the planning stages, and we probably won't see it anytime soon.

There also have been rumours floating around that a retrofit program will come into effect for some of the smaller minor vessels (Tachek, Tenaka, Quadra Queen II, North Island Princess, etc) as opposed to the more costly option of replacing them. I think BC Ferries will continue their program of upgrading the larger minor vessels (Quinsam, Howe Sound Queen, Quinitsa, etc), and I think we will definitely see more of that in the near future.

Also, BC Ferries has introduced it's new subsidiary, BCF Global Inc. to take on operations of ferry systems elsewhere around the world, and I think a lot of attention will be focused on that, depending on how successful they are.

The bottom line: BC Ferries doesn't have a lot of money, nor do they have really any more major 'upgrading' to do to the fleet. You will of course see future ferry incidents, which is inevitable, however there isn't anything 'planned' for the short-term.

[ferrytraveller]

well i don't agree completely with the statement that BCFS is done with new builds. I agree we won't see any new vessels until around 2013 which we should see a replacement for the Chilliwack and the Tenaka.

But BC Ferries does have plans in place to build new minor vessels and that will happen sooner rather then later. Also the Nanaimo and Burnaby are due to be replaced in 2015 and 2016. This will be done, the money will be found whether from higher fares, or more borrowing, or maybe from bc ferries becoming a crown corporation again, but more vessels will be built.

[Mike C]

Of course - I'm not denying that new vessels won't be built. I am however denying that the program of building new minor vessels is still going ahead (If it is still going ahead, it would be apart of a long-term plan). From what I hear from officials at Deas and around the system, it will be replaced by a program which will upgrade minor vessels.

You hit the nail on the head with the others though; within about 4-5 years after the Olympics we will see the replacement of most, if not all of the late-50's & 60's minors, and maybe the early-70's ones, as well as replacing the B's.

[Low Light Mike]

I predict that BCFC will be dissolved in 2003 and replaced by a quasi-private company called "British Columbia Ferry Services Inc", and operate under a Coastal Ferry Agreement.

That's my prediction for BCFC.

As for BCFS, check out this thread (starting with reply #77) for the recently published management's comments on recent events and future plans:
ferriesbc.proboards20.com/index.cgi?board=bcferriesnews&action=display&thread=1696&page=4
There is plenty of content regarding future plans, including future capital projects.

[ferrytraveller]

yah, about 4-5 years after the olympics sounds about right
we will see 60 AEQ vessels most likely replacing all the minor vessels, 7-8 of the AEQ vessels build, being built as the K and T class.

[Mill Bay]

Let's have some fun... BCFerries will only last until just after the Olympics. Think of it as just for show.

After that, unless miracles still happen, but it's not likely within corporate culture these days, their financial situation will become extremely untenable. If the Liberals are still in power under Gordon, they will not want to touch the ferries simply out of their smug pride, so someone else will have to.

Since no other viable private sector corporations have expressed any interest, I predict that if the ferries are unable to operate, they may have to placed under government trust (as they did with Blackball), but I still do not think they will become a crown corporation. We may see an Air Canada style bailout simply to give the ferries the money to continue operation without taking them on as a crown corporation.

One way or another, the Provincial government will have to do something: a full user-pay system is not sustainable, as we've already seen and on top of that, it is completely absurd, not that the Liberals care about that either. Sadly, since the ferries are entirely within provincial boundaries, the province is really the highest level that can make decisions on what will happen with the service.

However, since the ferries are an integral mode of transportation and can be classed an essential service, the Liberals will be stuck with them like a ball and chain. So: why don't we rewind all the BC150 celebrations, go back to 1858 and change history, so that BC and VI remain two separate jurisdictions and ultimately two provinces (assuming Canada would still exist as we know it) and then the ferries could come under the jurisdiction of the federal government since they'd cross provincial boundaries (wouldn't that be fun!!).

Bottom line, as everyone knows but the Liberals would like to keep on pretending is not true, something will have to be done. It seems unlikely that the ferry system will be able to maintain itself as a private entity, and they only ones who have the resources and enough ownership anyways is the province. So boo-hoo Gordon: retire and let someone else take a swing at leading the province who might not sell off anything you haven't to the lowest bidder already.

[BreannaF]

Certainly, if the subject of this discussion is what we have to talk about, perhaps the somewhat green-tinted ferry system South of the border may provide fodder for entertainment and endless speculation.

There is of course the new-build program, such as it is, with the new fleet of one Q-class ships. It's so "right there" that I'm surprised that we don't have a thread yet titled "So... That Q Vessel?". And it ought to be named the Quillayute. Because ferrynutseattle says so.

And, of course, the new-build program will continue, as long as the legislature picks "Plan A". Of course, to the Northerners, they will all look the same. Of course, even though I have been on the Spirits a couple of dozen times, I can't actually attest to the fact that I have been on both the SoVI and the SoBC at one time or another. Or even which one it would have been. Discuss.

Or, the legislature could decide that we are in a recession, then decide to dig a hole and stick their heads in it for the next 15 years. Come to think of it, that might be an improvement. The alternative is called "Plan B". If you Google "Plan B" you will get nothing about ferries and a lot of links talking about contraceptives. That may be an appropriate illustration of what will happen to WSF if the WA legislature chooses Plan B.

One way or another, there will still be BC Ferries to ride, routes to conquer, and dragons to slay. Choose any two of those three and fly with it.

Someone other than "those same ten or so old dudes" might decide to show an interest in historical ferries. I never thought I'd be talking like my father, but we are starting to retire ferries that were born during my lifetime. Don't wait until the Coastal Renaissance is about to be retired to start thinking about our history and marine heritage! (Of course, this applies mostly to BC Ferries. I expect WSF will get around to retiring the Super ferries about the time my grandson retires. )

Do we really think that nothing more newsworthy will happen to BCFS in the next several years? Really? I wouldn't bet on it.

I'd bet we will still have lots to discuss. Don't change that channel!